US Withdrawal From INF Treaty Risks Missile Arms Race

The US's planned withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty on February 2 risks paving the way for a major missile build-up in Europe by the US and Russia, and in Asia by the US and China. The treaty was signed between the US and USSR in 1987 and forbade both sides from developing and deploying ground-launched [...]

By |2019-01-17T22:30:04+00:00January 17th, 2019|Warfare Theory|0 Comments

Lilly’s Oncology Ambitions, Loxo Acquisition is a perfect portfolio match

Eli Lilly and Loxo Oncology have entered into a definitive agreement for Lilly to acquire Loxo Oncology for USD235.00 per share in cash, or approximately USD8.0bn.  We also noted, in 2018, that Lilly would undertake small to mid-size acquisitions, and this is likely the just the first of Lilly's 2019 deals, whilst expected to be the biggest. The transaction [...]

By |2019-01-16T12:38:54+00:00January 16th, 2019|Healthcare, Warfare Theory|0 Comments

Oman / China collaboration will continue strengthening

Oman will continue to deepen bilateral ties with China, following the announcement of the establishment of a strategic partnership in May 2018. The two countries indicated their intentions to build on bilateral relations across a number of areas, deepening trade and investment ties, which have already been strengthening in recent years. Most importantly, China is [...]

By |2019-01-04T10:35:15+00:00January 4th, 2019|Warfare Theory|0 Comments

USD exchange rate, FED dilemma for 2019 the crossroad year

Several bearish factors combined with a mature Fed hiking cycle will start to outweigh the more bullish catalysts, capping USD strength. Our neutral view is also underpinned by rising uncertainty across the G10 economies and we believe that the US dollar will trade sideways against its major peers given that we do not expect G10 [...]

By |2019-01-03T08:41:55+00:00January 3rd, 2019|Warfare Theory|0 Comments

Iranian authorities likely to devalue official exchange rate or cut subsidised imports

We view it as likely that the Iranian authorities will devalue the official exchange rate and/or narrow the definition of ‘basic goods’ that qualify for imports at the current rate in 2019. The re-imposition and further tightening of US sanctions will drastically reduce oil export earnings and restrict cross-border financial transactions, leading to a sharp slowdown [...]

By |2019-01-02T14:22:38+00:00January 2nd, 2019|Warfare Theory|0 Comments

Declining Oil Export Earnings To Weaken Iran’s Fiscal Position and To Slide Deeper Into Recession

The re-imposition of US sanctions will severely restrict Iranian oil exports and thus lead to a decline in government oil revenues. We expects oil exports to reduce from a peak of 2.5mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2018 to about 1.2mn b/d in 2019 . Given that oil accounts for around 40% of total revenues, this [...]

By |2018-12-29T07:54:56+00:00December 29th, 2018|Warfare Theory|0 Comments

GSK and Pfizer create a giant Consumer Healthcare JV

Issued: 19 December 2018, London UK - LSE AnnouncementGlaxoSmithKline plc and Pfizer Inc to form new world-leading Consumer Healthcare Joint Venture Transaction provides a unique opportunity to accelerate GSK's strategy and create substantial value for shareholdersLays foundation for separation of GSK to create two new UK-based global companies focused on Pharmaceuticals/Vaccines and Consumer HealthcareGlaxoSmithKline plc [...]

By |2018-12-19T14:30:35+00:00December 19th, 2018|Healthcare, Warfare Theory|0 Comments

Russia-Vietnam Relations To Strengthen Further, a strategic move for the Kremlin

Vietnam and Russia have been deepening military and economic cooperation over the past few years, and their bilateral relationship will likely continue to strengthen. This would be strategically beneficial for both sides as Russia is looking to diversify its economy, after it was hard-hit by Western economic sanctions, while Vietnam is seeking to modernise its [...]

By |2018-12-11T10:54:34+00:00December 11th, 2018|Warfare Theory|0 Comments